Oil Market Sees Historic $60% March Surge as Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Worst Supply Shock Since 1988
Brent crude oil futures posted a gain of more than 60% in March 2026, marking the largest monthly rally in the benchmark’s history dating back to 1988. The May contract settled roughly 5% higher on Tuesday at $118.35 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, climbed about 51% during the month, its best performance since May 2020 .
BREAKING: Brent crude oil futures prices officially end March 2026 with a +60% gain, posting the largest monthly gain since the creations of the futures contract in 1988.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 31, 2026
US gas prices are up by +$1.25/gallon since December. pic.twitter.com/3OFL6Drukl
📌 Twitter Embed Description: The Kobeissi Letter reports Brent crude futures ended March 2026 with a 60% gain, the largest monthly increase since the contract’s creation in 1988, with US gas prices up $1.25 per gallon since December.
The historic surge was triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz following joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28. The waterway, through which approximately 20-30% of global oil passes, has been effectively shut, creating what the International Energy Agency (IEA) described as the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market .
The energy shock has already hit consumers hard. US gas prices have risen $1.25 per gallon since December to $4 per gallon, the highest level since 2022. In the UK, petrol reached 152.8p per liter, roughly 20p higher than at the start of the conflict .
JPMorgan’s global head of economics, Bruce Kasman, warned that a prolonged closure would push prices even higher. “A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $150 per barrel and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply,” he said .
Bloomberg reported that US officials and Wall Street analysts have begun discussing the possibility of crude reaching $200 per barrel—a level that would dwarf the 2022 peak and rival the 2008 all-time highs when adjusted for inflation .
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump suggested the US could end operations in Iran within two to three weeks. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump told aides he would be willing to end the military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut. The Journal also reported that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to assist the US in reopening the waterway by force .
TRUMP: UK / EU – GO GET YOUR OWN OIL… YOU CHICKENS
— NewsForce (@Newsforce) March 31, 2026
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel…
I have a suggestion for you: 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”
pic.twitter.com/qiaOIF5e7A
📌 Twitter Embed Description: President Trump criticizes European allies, suggesting they should either buy US oil or take military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz themselves, declaring “America is done holding your hand.”
The geopolitical landscape remains volatile. Whether a diplomatic resolution, military withdrawal, or forced reopening of the strait comes first will likely determine whether oil markets stabilize or continue climbing. The IEA has warned that the disruption is already affecting industrial supply chains, with refineries in Europe and Asia reporting reduced throughput .
For consumers, the impact is immediate. The $1.25 per gallon increase in US gasoline prices translates to roughly $20 per fill-up for the average vehicle. European drivers are facing similar pressures, with diesel prices also surging. Economists warn that sustained high energy costs could tip the global economy into recession, adding another layer of complexity to an already fraught geopolitical situation .
The March oil rally represents a stark reversal from earlier in the year, when prices were trending lower amid expectations of slowing demand. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively rewritten the supply-demand balance, and analysts say the market is now pricing in a prolonged disruption scenario .
As the world enters April, all eyes remain on the Strait of Hormuz. The coming weeks will determine whether the historic rally extends further or whether a resolution brings prices back toward pre-conflict levels. For now, the energy market is in uncharted territory .
